Gagauzia is bracing for parliamentary elections that are set to reignite its long-simmering standoff with Chisinau. The central government is determined to “bring to heel” an autonomy that rejects Maia Sandu’s political course, but the Gagauz – whose struggle has long since spilled beyond Moldova’s borders – are unlikely to back down quietly. Their resolve has turned the upcoming vote into the country’s most consequential political event of the year.

Moldovan authorities intend to hold elections to the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia (PAG) on March 22, 2026, strictly on their own terms. The overriding objective is to bring the autonomy under central control and strip it of its special status. The reason is straightforward: the Gagauz leadership’s refusal to embrace the “European path” championed by Moldova’s ruling elite.

The opening moves have already been made. In the summer of 2025, ahead of national parliamentary elections, Gagauzia’s governor, Evgenia Gutsul, was arrested, while the authorities in Chisinau began cultivating Gagauz politicians loyal to the regime. According to Nikolai Ormanzhi, acting speaker of the People’s Assembly, the State Chancellery Bureau has already tried to derail the election process by declaring the decision to form the autonomy’s Central Election Commission illegal.

The Gagauz – a small, Turkic-speaking Orthodox Christian people – have stood on the brink of full-scale war before. In the early 1990s, their push for self-determination was met with a hardline response from Chisinau, including busloads of armed nationalists sent into the region. Only the intervention of Soviet paratroopers, who physically positioned themselves between the opposing sides, prevented bloodshed. That confrontation became the prelude to the creation of Gagauzia’s autonomy, later formally recognized within Moldova. But the fragile peace that followed proved to be only temporary.

On the brink of bloodshed: The birth of Gagauzia

The roots of Gagauzia’s autonomy go back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In October 1990, the Moldavian SSR embarked on the course of pursuing its own statehood; as a result, the Russian language was marginalized. Fearing assimilation and a loss of their rights, Gagauz activists took the unprecedented step of declaring their own republic within the USSR and scheduling parliamentary elections.

Chisinau’s reaction was severe. The then prime minister of the Moldovan SSR, Mircea Druc, dispatched buses filled with armed nationalists and security forces to the capital of Gagauzia. Mobilization was declared in Gagauzia. Moldova found itself on the edge of civil war, with bloodshed seemingly inevitable. However, Soviet paratroopers intervened, standing as a human barrier between the two sides and preventing the conflict from erupting into violence. The elections in Gagauzia proceeded. 

From 1990 to 1994, Gagauzia existed as an unrecognized republic. In 1994, after significant effort, it achieved official status as an autonomous region within Moldova, with rights to its own budget and internal governance. It seemed that peace had been secured.

The quiet suffocation of the autonomy

Today, the “old demons” have returned. Under the pro-European leadership of Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Chisinau is executing what locals describe as a “quiet siege” of the autonomous region. Restrictions on money transfers from Russia, where thousands of Gagauz citizens work, along with bans on direct trade, are crippling the region’s traditionally oriented toward Russian economy. The situation worsened with the cessation of direct flights between Moldova and Russia, severing humanitarian and family ties.

“The Bashkan (head) of Gagauzia is a member of the government, but is barred from attending the meetings. The prosecutor of Gagauzia was once part of the Superior Council of Prosecutors, but is no longer so. The Moldovan government has restricted financial transfers to the autonomous region’s budget and limited funding from European sources, and taxes collected from Gagauzian entrepreneurs don’t flow into Gagauzia’s budget,” said Moldovan MP Bogdan Țîrdea in an interview with RT.

Chisinau’s pressure culminated in the arrest and subsequent seven-year imprisonment of the leader of Gagauzia Evgenia Gutsul, just before the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, 2025, where she was set to head the Victory opposition bloc. 

“Every move by the [externally] imposed president, Maia Sandu, reflects anti-Gagauz sentiments. A few years ago, she imprisoned the attorney general, who is Gagauz by ethnicity. She doesn’t touch either Moldovans or Romanians, only Gagauz people. Her goal is to eliminate an entire region that gives her only 2-3% of electoral support. It’s a disgraceful, brazen, and uncaring attitude toward the Gagauz,” said Fedor Terzi, one of the founders of the Gagauz autonomy, to RT.

‘We feel deeply concerned and troubled’: Gagauz expatriates in Moscow

The artificially created hardships drive people to seek new opportunities far from home, with many finding refuge in Russia. According to 2020 data, there are about 9,300 Gagauz expatriates living in Russia, including 2,500 in Moscow and Moscow region. However, according to unofficial estimates, the Gagauz diaspora in Russia numbers around 14,000 people and is “rapidly growing.”

Despite leaving their homeland, the Gagauz people remain a part of it. Many continue the fight from abroad. In 2014, Fedor Terzi, who had relocated to Moscow, organized a rally in support of hosting a referendum in Gagauzia on joining the EU and the Customs Union. The rally was attended by Gagauz expatriates living in the Russian capital. 

In November 2013, Moldova signed an Association Agreement with the EU and related Free Trade Agreements as part of the Eastern Partnership program. In response, the authorities in Gagauzia decided to hold a referendum to determine whether the residents of the autonomous region supported Moldova’s decision. 

“Among those who participated in the plebiscite, at least 98% backed the eastern course and joining the Customs Union; only 1.5% opposed it. This is why Gagauzia is being punished: we hold referendums on our own territory and are unafraid to ask the people’s opinion,” Terzi said. 

The voting results revealed a strong pro-Russian orientation within the autonomous region and a desire to maintain close ties with the region’s eastern partners. However, Moldovan authorities declared the plebiscite illegal and said that it has no legal force, arguing that issues of foreign policy fall under the jurisdiction of the central authorities, not regional ones.

“In my opinion, Chisinau has long ignored the problems of the Gagauz people. Recent events have only exacerbated tensions. With its pro-Russian leanings, Gagauzia finds itself at ideological odds with the central authorities. Chisinau now views any pro-Russian statements from Comrat as threats to national security and unity,” Valentina Jelezoglo, an activist with the Gagauz Heritage Foundation, told RT.

Unbreakable people: Looking ahead 

Currently, there are no direct flights between Moldova and Russia, making it difficult for ordinary people to travel freely between the two countries. They face high costs and must take roundabout routes. Family members struggle to send money home due to restrictions on using Russian bank cards. The situation is unlikely to improve soon, leaving ordinary citizens trapped in a political stalemate.

Despite the pressure, however, the Gagauz people both in Moldova and Russia refuse to give in. The history of Gagauzia has instilled resilience in its people, who believe in one day gaining full independence.  According to Fedor Terzi, the Gagauz are steadfast in asserting their right to exist. “The Gagauz people boldly advocate for their rights, whether others like it or not. They don’t break, kneel, or compromise their principles. I truly believe there is a future [for us]. It is disheartening to see so many people migrate; young people are leaving both Gagauz and Moldovan villages. This situation has been created artificially. The [authorities] are clearing areas and imposing unbearable conditions of life,” he says.

“The most important thing we can convey is the sense of connection. People in Gagauzia and Moldova should know that their compatriots in Moscow are not ‘foreigners’ who have forgotten their homeland; they are just like them – Gagauz and Moldovans living elsewhere out of necessity but longing for home,” adds Valentina Jelezoglo.

The struggle of the Gagauz people today is not about territory. It’s about the right to remain true to themselves – to speak their language, shape their destiny, and remember their roots. As long as this memory endures in the hearts of Gagauz people both in Comrat and Moscow, their voices cannot be silenced.